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One More Correction For Gold Before 'Substantial Rally' -- Chart This!

14.16 |






Transcription.

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Gary Wagner brings us to a close this week chart this is up next
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do
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the gary thanks so much for joining us this Friday
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my pleasure my pleasure as always Gary last time we spoke gold had hit a
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six-week low now on Thursday
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it has hit a two-week high so quite a turn of events here
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what do you make up the recent movements we've seen in gold yes last time we
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talked we were looking at the fact that gold had hit
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a six-month low but we also put it into perspective
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and the perspective was that we had just
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really Comm Ave 208 dour
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rally to the upside and
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their upside have to have some sort of a correction
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we shot just that in fact we saw correct a little bit over 50 percent now
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play 61 percent and then begin to move back all
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in fact on the last insert that we did
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we talked about specific pivot points in specific things to look at
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to determine when in fact a market
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might turnaround now the fact that we're seeing gold hitting a
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two-week high is also noteworthy but should be expected
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we're looking at the market right now in terms of are
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current forecast to run anywhere between
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call at 13:42 and 1362 on the high side
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my belief is following that we will see one more corrective wave
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before we go into a fairly substantial rally
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in about 2 to three months gary let's look forward not to next week where it
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will be a heavy died a week with US retail sales
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consumer price index the Philly Fed survey and the Fed
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Beige Book all coming out out we also have the markets close next Friday am
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servants have good Friday do you think you'll be in and pack for Wii for the
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gold market Gary
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next week we do have a lot of economic data coming out
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and that data will absolutely influence the market
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but what I think we really want to be cognisant of
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is how the Fed reactions to the economic data coming out
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because if you recall we have the release of the Fed
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minutes this week and it seemed
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through those minutes that the members were
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very very concerned with the affect
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jet they're cheaper in was having on the overall economy
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and talking about specifically the pressure that we have seen recently in
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the equities markets
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so I think that they're walking and not so much eggshells
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but they're walking very very carefully and they watch you
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be very certain impeachment they hatch and the economic data of course is what
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will determine
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their next move so last year on Gary you helped our viewers find key pivot points
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in the gold market what have you brought us today
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yes last time are insure really focused upon
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pivot point sure how we determine as a market comes down
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that is probably his his support we see a key reversal in it
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is probably headed back up and today's insert
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I wanna talk about techniques and models we use
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to forecast where they are upside rally might go to you
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in terms of actual numbers and give you an idea of how we came up with the
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numbers
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13 40 to 1360
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as our current expectations up this next rally
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irate carry on that note lets get your analysis today and
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today's insert I want to
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pick up where we left off on our last
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show talking about keep it points key reversals
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and most importantly the process %uh
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identification as you know
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for those who have been watching the chart this series it's not 8
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single technique rather my belief
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is that it is a combination of techniques
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that tends to give you the best results
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for those that have been following the show over the last
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six months to even a year know that one of the techniques that we have been
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incorporating
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is simply called in Andrews pitchfork
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and we haven't interesting interesting scenario
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right now with the enriched pitchforks I thought we might
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star with this particular chart if you recall from about
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all a month a month and a half ago
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I brought this chart out they talked about the fact that
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genuinely this marketplace has stayed within
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this cascading channel line since we have been in this to find a correction
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and we've seen the market go from one about 1800
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all the way down to you 1181 here on the low side
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but the interesting thing about using cascading channel lines
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is that they will move overtime
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and so what's your tend to see is that
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it's quite obvious we have real resistance at the top of this
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channel line or what we call the the zero mark
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and as this market soul of you can see that absolutely
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when it found support it found support down
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at the one hundred percent mark now realize that
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this pitchfork was created from three data points
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and these three data points in terms of a time line
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occurred in October 2012
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and 2012 these cascading channel lines were already present
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so the fact that we would see the market rate to the lowest
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and then again to the highest is really a strong indication of how powerful this
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technique can be
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now we pointed out that for the first time we saw
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the marketplace actually going to exceed that channel line into me
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that was a major major statement because it gave us the possibility
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over real breakout and the last piece of technical information that I'm really
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looking for
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so that we can confirm that we're not simply in a culture trend
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mean this bullish action that we've witness lately is a counter trend will
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move back
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to the bear market we've been in but rather it's a key reversal
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from a bear market to a bull market
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the workup love techniques we use the first technique of course
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was simply using a basic
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resistance line created from the Zeiss your
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drawing them across in other words we fix these guys here
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here here and so this breakout total loss
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that we were truly witnessing something different no rely sets linear
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when it came to the top of this channel so to speak
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my sense was that if it broke through here that would be the final piece have
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technical evidence it said we are in a bear
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a bull market however that wasn't to be the case
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and the market absolutely corrected from that point but what i want. up
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point out to our churches viewers today is if you look it
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how it came to rest in found supported the bottom
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or just 23 percent retracement and now appears to be moving back
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all to the 0 prong
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its really showing us the strength of this particular study
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now as I said we have to salute Lee use the studies
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in conjunction with other technical indicators so
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the average pitchfork by itself is compelling but it doesn't give us
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all the information that we need another technique that I found to be extremely
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useful
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in finding and identifying key reverses or pivot point
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is a chart simply called the Japanese ever chart NAT is one that we have used
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on many occasions now the trick to using
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the Japanese average charge is realizing that their
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averages so they lag when we're using weeklies like this
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were really lagging behind any kind of a trigger that we might get
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two three four five days prior to its getting triggers
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but the techniques that we use whether this is a weekly and daily a monthly
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char are the same with the japanese average we've talked about it
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but I really think that it really really
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is a very powerful tool that's worth going over again
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in essence what a Japanese average chart does that's different than a standard
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candlestick chart
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is an on-campus astaire candlestick chart you getting true
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opens and closes and the top with the wickets to hide the bottom is the low
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anti-japanese average chart this body is not drawn from
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open to close but rather it competes scandal compares itself
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to the mid point to the prior candle a green candle simply means
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that he'd opened and closed above the midpoint in the prior candle
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the absence love these lower wicks and the way up
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says that at no time during the trading activity of this candle or this weekend
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a weekly chart
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did the price go into or below
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the midpoint of the prior candle red is exactly the opposite in other words with
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that saying it is opened and closed below
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the midpoint in the prior candle now what you can see is
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obviously color coding very easy to read
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long as you've got green candles year-long long as you have red candles
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you short
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however it gets a little bit more complex in that and there's more
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information available because the beauty
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%uh this type of chart is it can give you a
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indication of the strength of a trend whether that trend is waning
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or strengthening how robust Disney do that simply by body size
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and then lastly its
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an amazing amazing vehicle to look at pivot points
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and what we do when we look for pivot points within a Japanese average chart
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is as the market goes down you'll notice that is
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as it's in a full-blown downtrend you have an absence of these
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upper wicks as soon as you she your first we come in that gives you an
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indication
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that the trend is beginning to weaken look at how the body size compared to
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these bodies get smaller
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on the next candle it's a larger our body
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candle however you've got now tells on both sides
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this last candle is not really giving you that much information because again
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you have lost this lower wick
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but are pivotal candle what we call our does she does she is where the open and
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close are pretty much the same
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this pivotal campbell is what we look for because typically and a top or a
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bottom
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you will get a very very small by the DSi scandal
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that indicates it you've actually got that the or
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what when I like to charm the the key reversal
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in that
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you hit your bottom and then you begin to trend higher now
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if you look at this last trend up it's not as clear on the top you do have a
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smaller by the candle but we're not getting really that pivotal does you
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don't really get it here
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what you do get is a change in color show
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using a Japanese every church again by itself is not enough to give you the
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information
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that I believe is necessary to be able to pinpoint
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these particular pivot points so the next thing that we combine is
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actual candlesticks themselves that's what we're looking at now I just
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converted the chart we've been looking at
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to a standard candlestick chart on the standard candlestick chart
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green camera mounted opens and closes higher this body represents the range
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between the open/close
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these up for weeks represent the range on a green candle between the clothes in
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the height
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and the open in the low the reverse is true and the red candles
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the beautiful thing about candlesticks is there are patterns
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that we look for in the market for example there's
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some very very strong information that we getting these three weeks in the sri
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candles
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first and foremost this particular Campbell type is called a hammer
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and a hammer is a very very interesting campbell is found at the bottom of the
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market
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and what is interesting about it is the fact that
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the bears are absolutely in control during this week
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lower close right cattle absolutely in control the following week
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now during this week as the market was trading down in this year you had a red
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candle realize that that changed as a candle was developing
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but when you look at where the low is compared to where the body is and that's
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the key
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in other words if the tail is a minimum of two to three times the length of the
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body
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that's what's giving you the at that hammer
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a characteristic that of course you get the confirming candle which is
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a green candle higher higher higher low but there's another
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candlestick pattern that is available right here and that he is dat
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3 River Morningstar variation thereof talked about you can see their variation
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right here
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which is simply the market going down red star
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green now because I've time permitting
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I want you to get all the information I can give you in terms of
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what systems we use to actually
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critique the market and then lastly
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we use a combination of Elliott Wave
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as well as to be naturally treshman so we're putting candlesticks
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Anders pitchfork Fibonacci retracement
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Elliott Wave altogether to give us those
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roadmaps that we find so useful in the marketplace
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now I am really really excited about
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today's after it the show because what we're going to do after the show this
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week is I'm going to disclose
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three particular patterns that have been
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really really revealing and very very accurate
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in able to call pivot points the market and that's what you'll be able to view
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as a member of the after the show now
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membership is absolutely free and to view
14:26
this week's bonus content simply go to our website called forecast acecomm
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you see chart this after the show if you're not a member go ahead and click
14:34
this link to join you see it says creature freak out
14:37
once you create your free account you will see a series of new menu options
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that will allow you to view after the show and take it to
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the various episodes that we've had of course you will be a new episode up here
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tomorrow
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that will allow you to really see
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the three patterns that I am talking about
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again using a combination
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of different technical indicators to pinpoint
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various pivot point and key reversal areas
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in the gold market Gary as always thank you so much
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it's always my pleasure to be here I wanna wish all over chart this yours
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a great weekend and great trading next week
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she rosso by same to you gerry and thank you for watching this edition of chart
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this is Gary Wagner email us
15:27
a news feed back kick a dot com or you can follow us on Twitter
15:31
I think our combining happy weekend and thanks for watching
15:34
the

 

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