Translate

PERCAYA DIRI

Dengan Perencanaan Yang Baik Berani Mengambil Resiko

JARINGAN

Memperluas Persahabatan Secara Professional

KESEIMBANGAN

Keuntungan Bersama Adalah Tujuan

KEPERCAYAAN

Menempatkan Amanat Sebagai Tanggungjawab

KUALITAS

Selalu Berusaha Meningkatan Kemampuan

Tampilkan postingan dengan label Fundamental. Tampilkan semua postingan
Tampilkan postingan dengan label Fundamental. Tampilkan semua postingan

Hasil Pertemuan FOMC 30.10.2013

03.34 |

Press Release. FOMC Meeting. 30 Oktober 2013. ( 31.10.2013. 01.00. GMT+7 ).

For immediate release.

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in September generally suggests that economic activity has continued to expand at a moderate pace. Indicators of labor market conditions have shown some further improvement, but the unemployment rate remains elevated. Available data suggest that household spending and business fixed investment advanced, while the recovery in the housing sector slowed somewhat in recent months. Fiscal policy is restraining economic growth. Apart from fluctuations due to changes in energy prices, inflation has been running below the Committee's longer-run objective, but longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable. Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic growth will pick up from its recent pace and the unemployment rate will gradually decline toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. The Committee sees the downside risks to the outlook for the economy and the labor market as having diminished, on net, since last fall. The Committee recognizes that inflation persistently below its 2 percent objective could pose risks to economic performance, but it anticipates that inflation will move back toward its objective over the medium term. Taking into account the extent of federal fiscal retrenchment over the past year, the Committee sees the improvement in economic activity and labor market conditions since it began its asset purchase program as consistent with growing underlying strength in the broader economy. However, the Committee decided to await more evidence that progress will be sustained before adjusting the pace of its purchases. Accordingly, the Committee decided to continue purchasing additional agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $40 billion per month and longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $45 billion per month. The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. Taken together, these actions should maintain downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative, which in turn should promote a stronger economic recovery and help to ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with the Committee's dual mandate. The Committee will closely monitor incoming information on economic and financial developments in coming months and will
continue its purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate, until the outlook for the labor market has improved substantially in a context of price stability. In judging when to moderate the pace of asset purchases, the Committee will, at its coming meetings, assess whether incoming information continues to support the Committee's expectation of ongoing improvement in labor market conditions and inflation moving back toward its longer-run objective. Asset purchases are not on a preset course, and the Committee's decisions about their pace will remain contingent on the Committee's economic outlook as well as its assessment of the likely efficacy and costs of such purchases.
To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends and the economic recovery strengthens. In particular, the Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that this exceptionally low range for the federal funds rate will be appropriate at least as long as the unemployment rate remains above 6-1/2 percent, inflation between one and two years ahead is projected to be no more than a half percentage point above the Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal, and longer-term inflation expectations continue to be well anchored. In determining how long to maintain a highly
accommodative stance of monetary policy, the Committee will also consider other information, including additional measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial developments. When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; James Bullard; Charles L. Evans; Jerome H. Powell; Eric S. Rosengren; Jeremy C. Stein; Daniel K. Tarullo; and Janet L. Yellen.
Voting against the action was Esther L. George, who was concerned that the continued high level of monetary accommodation increased the risks of future economic and financial imbalances and, over time, could cause an increase in long-term inflation expectations. 

2013 Monetary Policy Releases



Survey Data Payrolls Berdasarkan Bloomberg.

17.59 | 

                     BLOOMBERG SURVEY PAYROLLS.
================================================================
                           Nonfarm  Private     Manu Unemploy
                          Payrolls Payrolls Payrolls     Rate
                            ,000’s   ,000’s   ,000’s        %
================================================================

Date of Release              10/22    10/22    10/22    10/22
Observation Period           Sept.    Sept.    Sept.    Sept.
----------------------------------------------------------------
Median                         180      180        5     7.3%
Average                        180      180        6     7.3%
High Forecast                  256      245       15     7.4%
Low Forecast                   100       95        0     7.1%
Number of Participants          93       53       28       89
Previous                       169      152       14     7.3%
----------------------------------------------------------------
4CAST                          170      175     ---      7.4%
ABN Amro                       200      210     ---      7.3%
Action Economics               170      180       10     7.3%
Ameriprise Financial           160      160        6     7.4%
Banca Aletti                   190      195        5     7.3%
Bank of the West               180     ---        10     7.3%
Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi       210     ---      ---      7.1%
Banorte-IXE                    185     ---      ---      7.3%
Bantleon Bank AG               200     ---      ---      7.3%
Barclays                       200      210     ---      7.2%
Bayerische Landesbank          183     ---      ---      7.3%
BBVA                           180      187        5     7.3%
BMO Capital Markets            160     ---      ---      7.3%
BNP Paribas                    170      160     ---      7.3%
BofA Merrill Lynch             170      170     ---      7.3%
Briefing.com                   165      180     ---      7.3%
Capital Economics              200     ---      ---      7.3%
CIBC World Markets             185     ---      ---      7.3%
Citi                           180      170        0     7.3%
ClearView Economics            178      180       10     7.2%
CohnReznick                    180      190     ---      7.3%
Comerica                       175     ---         8     7.3%
Commerzbank AG                 175     ---      ---      7.3%
Credit Agricole CIB            160     ---      ---      7.3%
Credit Suisse                  165      175     ---      7.2%
CTI Capital                    173     ---      ---      ---
Daiwa Securities America       190     ---      ---      7.3%
Danske Bank A/S                180      180        8     7.3%
DekaBank                       190     ---      ---      7.2%
Desjardins Group               185     ---      ---      7.3%
Deutsche Bank Securities       170      170     ---      7.3%
Deutsche Postbank AG           180     ---      ---      7.3%
First Trust Advisors           197      202        2     7.3%
FTN Financial                  180      170     ---      7.3%
Goldman, Sachs & Co.           200     ---      ---      7.3%
Helaba                         175     ---      ---      7.3%
High Frequency Economics       185     ---      ---      7.3%
HSBC Markets                   171      172        5     7.3%
Hugh Johnson Advisors          185      189       15     7.4%
IDEAglobal                     190      185        5     7.2%
IHS Global Insight             155     ---      ---      7.3%
Informa Global Markets         195     ---         0     7.3%
ING Financial Markets          190      195        7     7.2%
Intesa Sanpaolo                180     ---      ---      7.3%
Investec Securities            175     ---      ---      7.3%
J.P. Morgan Chase              195      200        5     7.2%
Janney Montgomery Scott        155      160        2     7.2%
Jefferies                      190      180       10     7.2%
John Hancock Financial         175      180     ---      7.3%
Landesbank Berlin              250     ---      ---      7.2%
Landesbank BW                  200     ---      ---      7.2%
LinkUp                         110     ---      ---      ---
Lloyds Tsb Bank                189      194        5     7.3%
Maria Fiorini Ramirez          180      185     ---      ---
Market Securities              172     ---      ---      7.3%
MET Capital Advisors           180      169     ---      7.3%
Mizuho Securities              175     ---      ---      7.4%
Moody’s Analytics              160      170        5     7.2%
Morgan Stanley                 185      190       10     7.3%
National Bank Financial        160     ---      ---      7.3%
Natixis                        185     ---      ---      7.3%
Nomura Securities              180      180        5     7.2%
Nord/LB                        170      175        5     7.3%
OSK-DMG                        181     ---      ---      7.3%
Oxford Economics USA           165      175     ---      7.3%
Pantheon Macroeconomics        160     ---      ---      7.2%
Paragon Research               256     ---      ---      7.2%
Pierpont Securities            165      165     ---      7.3%
PineBridge Investments        ---       195     ---      7.3%
PNC Bank                       185      180        5     7.3%
Prestige Economics             160     ---      ---      7.4%
Raiffeisenbank International   175      180     ---      7.3%
Raymond James                  165      155     ---      7.3%
RBC Capital Markets            185      190     ---      7.3%
RBS Securities                 180      170     ---      7.3%
Regions Financial              202      180        6     7.2%
Santander Brasil               188      188     ---      7.3%
Scotiabank                     180     ---      ---      7.3%
SMBC Nikko Securities          240      230     ---      7.2%
Societe Generale               240      245     ---      7.1%
Southbay Research              146      136     ---      ---
Southern Polytechnic State     100       95     ---      7.4%
Standard Chartered Bank        165      177     ---      7.3%
Sterne Agee & Leach            150     ---      ---      7.3%
Stone McCarthy Research        190      180        5     7.3%
TD Securities                  182      182       10     7.3%
TrimTabs                       159     ---      ---      ---
UBS                            195      185     ---      7.2%
UniCredit Research             190     ---      ---      7.3%
Union Investment               175     ---      ---      7.3%
University of Maryland         164      154       10     7.3%
Wells Fargo & Co.              170     ---      ---      7.3%
Westpac Banking Co.            192     ---      ---      7.3%
Wrightson ICAP                 180      185     ---      7.3%
================================================================
 
Kalau data NFP nanti malam tgl.22.10.2013 jam.19.30 WIB,
mengacu pada hasil survey tersebut, yaitu Data NFP sebelumnya
169 K, Forecast 180 K, High Forecast 256 K, Low Forecast 100 K. 
Maka kita melihat bahwa sebagian besar peserta survey mengatakan
bahwa data NFP September yg akan dirilis malam ini menunjukan
berada diatas 169 K. 
Artinya itu akan mendukung USD, dan melemahkan mata uang lain
dan komoditas terutama gold yang beredominasi dengan US dolar.
Lebih jelasnya, kemungkinan besar EURUSD, GBPUSD dan Gold TURUN.
dan USDJPY, USDCAD, atau USDCHF akan NAIK.
Salam Profit.
 
 
 

Developed Macro: Markets After Bernanke

10.58 |

Crédit Agricole via eFXnews

 

The release of FOMC minutes and Bernanke’s speech were the two key events overnight. Instead of more clarity, although not entirely unanticipated, the minutes reflect divided views of FOMC members/participants on the timing of tapering.

The market initially took a step backward from the consensus recently built around Fed’s tapering in September. Later on risk appetite was boosted by Bernanke’s comments that highly accommodative monetary policy is needed for the foreseeable future and the unemployment rate may be overstating the job market’s health.

Reaction in the US Treasury market has been relatively muted but it is more magnified in the FX market where the USD has lost ground against most currencies.

For the day ahead we see Bernanke’s words keeping sentiment supported and the USD under pressure whereas the key event to watch today will be the Bank of Japan policy decision.

The European calendar today is full of second-tier data releases. HICP inflation in France, the only major country where no flash estimate is released, is expected to rise modestly, from 0.9% to 1.0% YoY in June. The same pattern is likely to be observed in Ireland. Meanwhile it should be no surprise that Greek unemployment rate is forecast to rise further in April, albeit at a slower pace, with the hope that tentative stabilisation can be achieved by the end of the year.

As a result there should be much more interest in any comment by ECB officials scheduled to speak today, including Weidmann and Coeuré, as well as on the ECB’s monthly bulletin to be released at 09:00 GMT. While we think the ECB is unlikely to give a clearer guidance on its forward guidance for now, the monthly bulleting is always interesting in terms of the topics being covered.

Fed Dudley: Higher Bond Buys For Longer If Outlook Worsens

10.31 |

 STAMFORD, CONN. (MNI) 


William C. Dudley, president of Federal Reserv...
William C. Dudley, president of Federal Reserve Bank of New York. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
A top Federal Reserve official Tuesday attempted to quell market concerns the central bank may be scaling back its support for the economic recovery prematurely, saying an increase in the pace of its bond buying is possible if the economic outlook deteriorates.
"The Fed has said we could raise or lower the pace of asset purchases," William Dudley, New York Federal Reserve Bank president and a close ally of Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, said in response to questions following a luncheon speech.
He reiterated that, if the economic outlook "surprised to the downside, if things were really, really weak," then "I would expect the rate of asset purchases would be higher for longer."
Asked about his mention in his prepared remarks that "asset purchases would continue at a higher pace for longer" should "economic circumstances diverge significantly from the FOMC's expectations," Dudley said he was being "deliberately ambiguous." The phrase can be interpreted as referring to the current "higher" rate of $85 million in monthly bond buying or an even faster pace.
His speech again described in detail how the Fed is keeping its options open on its eventual "tapering" of bond purchases and slimming of its bloated balance sheet.
The New York Fed chief said the Fed's rate of bond buying "depends on the outlook rather than the calendar."
Financial markets have shuddered in the days following the Fed's June 18-19 policy meeting, when Bernanke said that if the economic data ahead comports with the Fed's current outlook, the Federal Open Market Committee could begin the process of scaling back its asset purchases later this year.
Dudley repeated that "a strong majority of FOMC participants no longer favor selling agency MBS securities during the monetary policy normalization process.
"This implies a bigger balance sheet for longer ... and continuing support for mortgage markets going forward."
Most of his colleagues "currently do not expect short-term rates to begin to rise until 2015," he added.
Dudley told his audience that the Fed's "aggressive" policy action is supporting the broader economy's recovery by juicing credit markets.
But he acknowledged that, during the downturn, "we were at times too optimistic about the economic outlook."
He went on to muse that, "[w]ith the benefit of hindsight, should policy have been even more accommodative, even sooner than it was? Yeah, I think that would be fair."
Dudley also said that, despite total inflation falling short of the Fed's 2% goal, "inflation expectations are still pretty firmly anchored.
Copyright © 2013 MNI
 
 
 

U.S. Should Show Some Ambition on Bank Leverage

11.40 |






U.S. Regulators on Bank Leverage

Illustration by Bloomberg View

U.S. Should Show Some Ambition on Bank Leverage

By the Editors Jul 1, 2013 5:00 AM GMT+0700
 
U.S. regulators are showing encouraging signs of coming to a crucial understanding: If they want the financial system to be more resilient and beneficial for the economy, they’ll have to make sure the largest banks’ shareholders have more skin in the game.
This week, Federal Reserve officials are expected to vote on new rules for bank capital -- shareholders’ equity and other forms of financing that, as opposed to debt, can absorb losses and prevent insolvency in times of trouble. According to Bloomberg News, U.S. authorities have been considering increasing the requirement to $6 in capital for every $100 in assets, a “leverage ratio” of 6 percent. That’s double the international minimum set by global regulators in Basel, Switzerland. The current U.S. minimum is 4 percent.
A higher leverage ratio would be a welcome step toward strengthening the U.S. banking system. By international accounting standards, five of the country’s largest banks -- Bank of America Corp., Citigroup Inc., JPMorgan Chase & Co., Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley -- have, on average, just $3.40 in equity for each $100 in assets. They fund the rest of their combined $13.8 trillion in assets with borrowed money. Such extreme leverage means that a mere 3.4 percent drop in asset values could render them insolvent. This compares with a typical buffer of 8.7 percent for smaller banks, according to data from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.

Risk Weights

The leverage ratio has the advantage of being easier to understand, and hence to monitor, than the complex risk-weighted capital ratios that regulators have favored until now. Risk-weighting lets banks use less equity and more debt to finance supposedly safer investments -- for example, a $100,000 subprime mortgage loan might count as $100,000 in assets for capital-adequacy purposes, while $100,000 in government bonds might count as zero. It’s an easily manipulated process that commonly shrinks big institutions’ assets by half or more. The risk adjustments also encourage banks to favor investments with high yields and zero weights -- a market distortion that, among other things, contributed to the euro crisis by prompting European banks to load up on Greek sovereign debt.
Officials at the Federal Reserve have expressed concern about relying too much on the leverage ratio: If it is blind to the types of assets banks hold, they’ll go ahead and load up on the riskiest stuff possible. A bank that invested only in subprime loans, for instance, could look the same as a bank that put all its money in U.S. Treasury bonds. But nobody is suggesting that risk-weighted measures be abolished. Regulators can and should use them as a secondary constraint, to make sure banks aren’t gaming the system.
Equally important is whether requirements for the numerator and denominator in the leverage ratio -- capital divided by assets -- are as demanding as they should be. On capital, FDIC Vice Chairman Tom Hoenig has advocated $10 for each $100 in assets. Economists Anat Admati and Martin Hellwig, as well as research by the Bank of England, have suggested that $20 per $100 would be best for the economy. Given the immense cost of banking crises, it would be prudent to err on the high side.
On the denominator side -- assets -- the big banks have lobbied hard to craft the rules to their advantage. They’ve succeeded in getting regulators to ignore a large portion of their derivatives positions, and they have been pushing to exclude Treasury securities and cash held at the Fed, according to Bloomberg News. Such omissions can cut hundreds of billions of dollars from the banks’ measured assets, making them appear less levered than they really are. Again, such exceptions can create incentives for banks to get too exposed to investments that enjoy special treatment.
Arcane as they may seem, these details matter. A loophole in the definition of assets and several percentage points in a leverage ratio can make the difference between a banking system that takes down the economy and one that guides it intact through the next crisis. This time, regulators must get it right.
To contact the Bloomberg View editorial board: view@bloomberg.net.


 

Fed`s Lockhart says markets may have misread Bernanke message

23.56 |

  • Pace of bond buying depends on economy
  • Watching closely to see if there is a negative spillover from markets into economy
  • Bernanke`s comments don`t constitute a shift in policy
  • Inflation to rise gradually toward target but bears close watching
  • If inflation expectations soften appreciably, Fed would have to re-evaluate
  • Sees growth accelerating slightly
  • Expects GDP growth of 2-2.5% in 2013
  • Sees rate rise some in 2015
  • Expects current job pace to continue, would mean 7% unemployment in mid-2014
Lockhart is a centrist at the FOMC and is walking right down the middle here, echoing Bernanke. The dollar is turning around as EURUSD continues to fan out in an unusual broadening pattern. It`s clear to me there was some strong dollar demand coming through European markets and it`s over now.

Press Release FOMC Meeting, June 19, 2013

05.29 |

Hasil dari Pertemuan FOMC Meeting yg dirilis oleh Ketua Bank Sentral AS (The Fed) Ben Bernanke jam.01.30 wib, hampir sebagian besar sama dengan yang saya perkirakan dlm posting saya sebelumnya mengenai " Preview FOMC Meeting ".
Dan inilah hasil selengkapnya dari pertemuan tsb.

Press Release

Release Date: June 19, 2013

For immediate release

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in May suggests that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace. Labor market conditions have shown further improvement in recent months, on balance, but the unemployment rate remains elevated. Household spending and business fixed investment advanced, and the housing sector has strengthened further, but fiscal policy is restraining economic growth. Partly reflecting transitory influences, inflation has been running below the Committee's longer-run objective, but longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.
Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic growth will proceed at a moderate pace and the unemployment rate will gradually decline toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. The Committee sees the downside risks to the outlook for the economy and the labor market as having diminished since the fall. The Committee also anticipates that inflation over the medium term likely will run at or below its 2 percent objective.
To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with its dual mandate, the Committee decided to continue purchasing additional agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $40 billion per month and longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $45 billion per month. The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. Taken together, these actions should maintain downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative.
The Committee will closely monitor incoming information on economic and financial developments in coming months. The Committee will continue its purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate, until the outlook for the labor market has improved substantially in a context of price stability. The Committee is prepared to increase or reduce the pace of its purchases to maintain appropriate policy accommodation as the outlook for the labor market or inflation changes. In determining the size, pace, and composition of its asset purchases, the Committee will continue to take appropriate account of the likely efficacy and costs of such purchases as well as the extent of progress toward its economic objectives.
To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee expects that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends and the economic recovery strengthens. In particular, the Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that this exceptionally low range for the federal funds rate will be appropriate at least as long as the unemployment rate remains above 6-1/2 percent, inflation between one and two years ahead is projected to be no more than a half percentage point above the Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal, and longer-term inflation expectations continue to be well anchored. In determining how long to maintain a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy, the Committee will also consider other information, including additional measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial developments. When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Charles L. Evans; Jerome H. Powell; Sarah Bloom Raskin; Eric S. Rosengren; Jeremy C. Stein; Daniel K. Tarullo; and Janet L. Yellen. Voting against the action was James Bullard, who believed that the Committee should signal more strongly its willingness to defend its inflation goal in light of recent low inflation readings, and Esther L. George, who was concerned that the continued high level of monetary accommodation increased the risks of future economic and financial imbalances and, over time, could cause an increase in long-term inflation expectations.
 
 
Enhanced by Zemanta

Preview Pertemuan FOMC bulan Juni 2013.

08.51 |

Kesaksian Bernanke didepan Kongres pada 22 Mei, telah menjadikan pasar gelisah,

dan telah terjadi volatilitas kembali, karena pedagang mencoba untuk berasumsi tentang

perlambatan pembelian aset.

Ketidakpastian ini tidak hanya melanda pasar keuangan AS, tetapi semua pasar keuangan,

dan pasar negara berkembang terutama menanggung beban akan volatilitas pasar tsb.

Dan berita dari AS kemungkinan akan terus membentuk fokus pedagang di minggu-minggu mendatang.

Risalah dari pertemuan FOMC sebelumnya di bulan Mei menunjukkan bahwa masih ada perbedaan

pandangan. Dan beberapa pembuat kebijakan telah membuat komentar yang menambah ketidakpastian.

Sebagai contoh, Presiden Fed St Louis James Bullard - anggota voting hawkish di FOMC -

baru-baru ini mengatakan "kondisi pasar tenaga kerja telah membaik sejak musim panas lalu,

tapi pembacaan inflasi cukup rendah mungkin berarti bahwa [FOMC] dapat mempertahankan program

stimulus moneter dalam jangka waktu yang lebih lama. "Di sisi lain, komentar Bernanke

didepan kongres terkesan lebih " netral ", mengatakan bahwa langkah pembelian aset tergantung

pada data ekonomi yang masuk.

Sementara fundamental ekonomi di AS telah membaik, pemulihan sedang menghadapi tantangan

yg disebabkan oleh perlambatan pertumbuhan global dan juga ketidakpastian kebijakan fiskal

dalam negeri. Akibatnya, data yang terlihat adalah tidak bagus-bagus amat tapi juga tidak

buruk, dan dalam konteks ini, maka komentar Bernanke didepan konggres bulan lalu adalah

mungkin menunjukkan bahwa pengurangan/perlambatan program stimulus moneter tidak akan dilakukan

dalam waktu dekat.

IMF mendesak Fed agar program QE tetap dipertahankan sampai akhir tahun, dan juga

mendesak Fed untuk "hati-hati mensinkronkan" waktu keluar dari program QE.

Dan sementara beberapa pedagang mengantisipasi bahwa The Fed akan menghentikan skala program

pelonggaran kuantitatif sebelum akhir 2013.

Pasar, bagaimanapun, tampaknya lebih peduli tentang kapan

The Fed akan mengurangi skala pembelian aset.

Issue tentang perlambatan program pembelian obligasi telah

mendorong investor menebak-nebak komitmen Fed lebih luas dalam

menjaga tingkat suku bunga rendah. Pejabat melihat pembelian obligasi

sebagai bahan bakar tambahan yang mereka sediakan dalam kondisi ekonomi yg sedang melemah.

Setelah perekonomian cukup kuat untuk tumbuh tanpa bahan bakar tambahan, merekapun masih berharap untuk

mempertahankan suku bunga rendah untuk "memastikan" bahwa perekonomian terus bergerak maju.

Ben Bernanke masih punya cukup waktu untuk mempertimbangkan apakah akan

mengurangi pembelian obligasi atau menaikkan suku dalam konferensi persnya nanti malam.

Ini adalah tentang argumen bahwa harapan umum adalah bahwa Ben Bernanke

akan menenangkan pasar atas kekhawatiran terlalu berlebihan akan perlambatan program QE.

Ben Bernanke kemungkinan akan menggabungkan 2 perspeksi,

" Menggabungkan pesan optimis tentang bagaimana ekonomi telah tumbuh lebih baik

dan itu akan segera membenarkan signal pengurangan program QE " bersamaan

dengan " memberikan kesan bahwa itu tergantung pada perbaikan Ekonomi lebih lanjut".

The Fed sebelumnya memperkirakan bahwa ekonomi AS akan tumbuh 2,6% pada 2013

dan 3,2% pada tahun 2014.

Fed juga memprediksi bahwa pengangguran akan turun dari 7,4% pada 2013 menjadi 6,9% pada tahun 2014.


" Kesimpulan saya adalah bahwa hasil pertemuan FOMC nanti malam (Kamis Dini Hari) yg dilanjutkan dg statement

oleh ketua FED 30 menit kemudian tidak akan jauh berbeda

dengan kesaksian Ben Bernanke didepan Konggres bulan lalu, yaitu bahwa terlebih dahulu dia akan memaparkan

secara eksplisit bahwa ekonomi telah tumbuh lebih baik, tetapi masalah ketenagakerjaan masih belum sesuai

target yg diharapkan dan akan tetap memantau perkembangan yang ada dan masih menunggu data-data kedepan untuk

menentukan apakah program stimulus moneter akan diperlambat atau tetap dilanjutkan sampai akhir tahun ini".

Jadi masih belum ada kepastian dari The FED, sehingga pergerakan Gold masih akan dalam pola KONSOLIDASI.

Tapi nanti malam tetap akan terjadi Volatilitas harga sebagaimana yg terjadi sebelum2nya dari mulai jam.01.00 wib

sampai dengan berakhirnya pidato Ben (yg dimulai jam 01.30 wib).

SEKIAN.
Enhanced by Zemanta

Fed Likely to Signal Tapering Move

04.24 |

Ben Bernanke is likely to signal that the U.S. Federal Reserve is close to tapering down its $85 billion-a-month in asset purchases when he holds a press conference on Wednesday, but balance that by saying subsequent moves depend on what happens to the economy.
The Fed chairman has a double communications problem. Markets seem reluctant to acknowledge the improvement that is leading the Fed towards a taper of QE3. But they also appear to be assuming, incorrectly, that any taper means the Fed has become less willing to support the economy's recovery.


Mr Bernanke is likely to push against both misperceptions, combining an upbeat message on how the strength of the economy will soon justify a taper, with a signal that further tapering depends on further improvement in the economy and in no way brings forward an interest rate rise.

When it started QE3 last September, the Fed said it would keep buying assets until there was a "substantial improvement" in the outlook for the labor market. Since then, two main developments have been driving the Fed's move towards a taper now.
First, the main indicators of the labor market have improved. The Fed's projection for unemployment at the end of 2013 is down from 7.75 percent to 7.4 percent and falling. Average payrolls growth in the past six months has been 194,000 compared with 130,000 in the six months leading up to QE3.
Monthly payrolls have become less volatile. The economy is weathering tax rises and federal spending cuts. Although markets have been slow to acknowledge it, all this looks like a substantial improvement.
Play Video
Fed Has to Choreograph Taper: Pro
Discussing market action ahead of the Fed's meeting on Tuesday, with Robert Keiser, S&P Capital IQ, and Michael Santoli, Yahoo! Finance.
There is still a dark side to the labor market—measures of dynamism such as rates of hiring, quitting jobs and working part time because a full-time job is not available—have barely improved. But that is offset somewhat by the second development.
When the Fed began QE3 last autumn it was working on the assumption that a lot of people who had given up looking for jobs would return once the economy improved. That may still happen—there were some signs of it in the last jobs report—but a steady flow of Fed research suggests participation will stabilize rather than bounce back.
As a result, there is a mood inside the Fed that payrolls growth of close to 200,000 a month is a lot better than it looks, and may be all that is needed to keep the unemployment rate coming down. In other words, some Fed officials' definition of "substantial improvement" has become a bit less optimistic over time.
To add still more accommodation even as the labor market improves—which is how the Fed regards adding $85 billion-a-month to its stock of assets—is like the fire brigade pumping faster even as the fire goes out. At some point the extra water does more damage than the remaining flames. But that does not mean the Fed is going to turn off the water and let the building catch fire again.
A couple of complications exist. One is unexpectedly low inflation. Most Fed officials are sanguine about the drop in their favored measure of core inflation to 1.1 percent. Expectations of future inflation are holding up and a similar slide in 2010 did not end in deflation despite a weaker economy. So far, it is a minor factor in the Fed's calculations, although it will weigh more heavily if expectations move or inflation defies forecasts and stays low.
The other complication is the rise in bond yields, triggered by the confused market response to a likely Fed taper, which has in itself tightened financial conditions. Market movements are unlikely to delay a Fed taper—but they are likely to make the Fed cautious until it has got its message across.

—By Robin Harding, Financial Times.
Published: Monday, 17 Jun 2013 | 3:39 PM ET

Is A Fed Tapering Correction Around Corner? by Chris Ciovacco

13.23 |

Is A Fed Tapering Correction Around Corner? by Chris Ciovacco


The next formal policy statement from the Federal Reserve could prove to be unfriendly to the current stock rally. Based on history, it is reasonable to state Jon Hilsenrath of the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) is plugged into the Fed. From a Hilsenrath WSJ story dated June 7:
Federal Reserve officials are likely to signal at their June policy meeting that they're on track to begin pulling back their $85-billion-a-month bond-buying program later this year, as long as the economy doesn't disappoint.


Stocks Held At Logical Level

Last week's sell-off in stocks was held in check near the intersection of the April closing highs and the trendline from the November 2012 lows (see chart below).
24hGold - Is A Fed Tapering Co...


Intermediate-Term Outlook Remains Bullish

This week's technical analysis and stock market forecast video (below) covers bullish trends from a daily, weekly, and monthly perspective.


Fed May Acknowledge Economic Improvement

While it is highly unlikely the Fed will announce a reduction in bond purchases next week, any new language that speaks to an improving economic outlook could be interpreted as a "tapering is coming" signal. From the June 7 Wall Street Journal story:
A good-but-not-great jobs report last Friday ensured officials wouldn't want to act right away and would instead want to see more data before taking a delicate step toward winding down the program. But they could point at their next meeting to improvement they're seeing in the economy, a prerequisite to reducing the so-called quantitative-easing program.


No Higher High Yet

With a Fed statement due June 19, the S&P 500 still has some work to do. As of Monday's close, the index was still noticeably below the May high.
24hGold - Is A Fed Tapering Co...


Retracement Levels Not Yet Cleared

The bounce in stocks that began last Thursday has yet to clear a Fibonacci hurdle commonly watched by traders. If the S&P 500 can close above 1,646 and change, it would increase the odds of a push toward a higher high above 1,669.
24hGold - Is A Fed Tapering Co...


Bond Market Already Moving

Any reduction in the Fed's bond purchase program will have a similar impact to a more traditional interest rate increase, which tends to put a drag on bond prices. After a very difficult month in May, bonds appear to be pricing in a change in Fed policy. Long-term Treasuries (TLT) have not made a new high since July 2012 (see below).
24hGold - Is A Fed Tapering Co...


Stocks Beating Bonds

As we noted on May 28, all investment decisions involve opportunity costs. Even with the stock market's recent volatility, equities have continued to outperform bonds. The chart below, as of Monday's close, shows stocks making a new weekly closing high relative to bonds.
24hGold - Is A Fed Tapering Co...


Materials Signaling Economic Improvement

All things being equal, materials stocks tend to be in greater demand during periods of economic expansion. The weekly chart of the materials ETF(XLB) shows a recent bullish breakout from previous areas of resistance dating back to June 2011, which supports the case for economic improvement.
24hGold - Is A Fed Tapering Co...


Hanging On To Bullish Bias

In the chart below, the red text describes a "bearish look" from a weekly perspective. The green text describes the look of a bullish trend from a weekly perspective. As of Monday's close, the look can be classified as tentatively bullish. Our concerns would increase if the chart below morphs into a downtrend (see October 2012), especially in the aftermath of any Fed-tapering hints next week.
24hGold - Is A Fed Tapering Co...


Leadership Sides With Cyclical Trade

Healthy stock market advances tend to be led by more economically-sensitive sectors such as financials, small caps, and technology. From a weekly perspective, financials (XLF) have held up relatively well.
24hGold - Is A Fed Tapering Co...


Strength In Small Caps

When investors feel better about future economic outcomes, they are more willing to invest in smaller (read riskier) companies. Small caps (IWM) kicked off the trading week with a gain of 0.61%. For comparison purposes, the S&P 500 posted a slight loss in Monday's session. It is difficult to become overly concerned when small caps are outperforming.
24hGold - Is A Fed Tapering Co...


Investment Implications

We will continue to favor stocks (SPY) over bonds (AGG) as long as the leadership and trends covered above remain in place. It is prudent to pay close attention with a Fed-tapering signal possibly coming next week. Higher highs in the major indexes would elevate some of our concerns related to being long stocks. A higher high would be in place if the S&P 500 can close above 1,670. We are open to shifting to a bearish or defensive bias if the charts begin to point in that direction, especially in the wake of any bear-friendly statements from the Federal Reserve on June 19.

Why the Fed Will Try to Calm Market Nerves

11.33 |

Why the Fed Will Try to Calm Market Nerves