Prediksi Gold. 31.07.2013
Pergerakan gold hari ini mungkin akan bergerak lagi ke area 1336 / 1337, lalu turun ke 1325. Prediksi ini sampai dengan sebelum Statement FOMC yg akan dirilis pukul. 01.00 dinihari. Jadi sebelum pukul 12.30, saya sarankan sudah harus close position. Sangat sulit untuk memprediksi apa yang akan keluar dari statement FOMC kali ini. Mover untuk pergerakan berarti gold mungkin akan menunggu keputusan Bank Sentral US pada bulan September yang akan datang. OK.
Prediksi Gold. 30.07.2013
Prediksi Gold. 29.07.2013
Prediksi Gold. 26.07.2013
Prediksi Gold. 25.07.2013
Prediksi Gold. 24.07.2013
Update. Pukul. 16.08 WIB.
Gold sepertinya ragu untuk melanjutkan kenaikannya dan sepertinya menunggu data penjualan rumah baru dari US yang akan dirilis pukul 21.00 WIB yang kemungkinan akan mengalami kenaikan dari data sebelumnya. Jadi posisi Sell Stop 1337 saya rasakan lebih baik dengan TP 1332. OK. Sekian.
Prediksi Gold. 23.07.2013
Prediksi Gold. 22.07.2013
Prediksi Gold. 19.07.2013
Prediksi Gold. 18.07.2013
Prediksi Gold. 17.07.2013
Prediksi Gold. 16.07.2013
Prediksi Gold. 15.07.2013
Developed Macro: Markets After Bernanke
Crédit Agricole via eFXnews
The release of FOMC minutes and Bernanke’s speech were the two key events overnight. Instead of more clarity, although not entirely unanticipated, the minutes reflect divided views of FOMC members/participants on the timing of tapering.
The market initially took a step backward from the consensus recently built around Fed’s tapering in September. Later on risk appetite was boosted by Bernanke’s comments that highly accommodative monetary policy is needed for the foreseeable future and the unemployment rate may be overstating the job market’s health.
Reaction in the US Treasury market has been relatively muted but it is more magnified in the FX market where the USD has lost ground against most currencies.
For the day ahead we see Bernanke’s words keeping sentiment supported and the USD under pressure whereas the key event to watch today will be the Bank of Japan policy decision.
The European calendar today is full of second-tier data releases. HICP inflation in France, the only major country where no flash estimate is released, is expected to rise modestly, from 0.9% to 1.0% YoY in June. The same pattern is likely to be observed in Ireland. Meanwhile it should be no surprise that Greek unemployment rate is forecast to rise further in April, albeit at a slower pace, with the hope that tentative stabilisation can be achieved by the end of the year.
As a result there should be much more interest in any comment by ECB officials scheduled to speak today, including Weidmann and Coeuré, as well as on the ECB’s monthly bulletin to be released at 09:00 GMT. While we think the ECB is unlikely to give a clearer guidance on its forward guidance for now, the monthly bulleting is always interesting in terms of the topics being covered.
World Bank Whistle-blower: “Precious Metals To Serve As An Underpinning For Paper Currencies”
It was a powerful conversation, as Karen spent 20 years with
the World Bank as an attorney and economist, before being “let-go” after reporting internal fraud and corruption. During the interview Karen indicated that the world is rapidly changing, with western power structures breaking down, economic & political influence gravitating to BRICs nations, all amid a pending currency transition which will highly favor precious metals. Hudes stated: “All of the countries of the world are going to allow precious metals to serve as currency, and this will be an underpinning for paper currency, as we’ll have both systems at the same time.”
From Tekoa Da Silva:
Starting out by discussing the shocking centralized power she witnessed while working at the World Bank, Karen explained that, “A study done by three [Swiss] systems analysts who used mathematical modeling [shows] how the [world's] 43,000 transnational corporations were being controlled through interlocking corporate directorates. There’s a group of 147 companies, most of them are financial institutions, and what they’ve done, is through the interlocking directorates, they control 40% of the net worth of these [43k] companies, and 60% of their earnings…so that group has been using the presidency of the World Bank as kind of a puppet to dominate the world—that’s [now] finished.”
A major shock to that centralized power base, according to Karen, was the recent move by BRICs nations leaders to bypass the World Bank for their financing needs, by establishing their own development bank. “As the BRICs [nations] economic power grows,” she explained, “they’re not going to be strangled anymore through the grabbing [of] their resources…So their decision to start their own development bank was their way of letting [world] governments know…that its time to end this corruption.”
Major moves toward monetary independence are also being made by growing numbers of U.S. states, Karen added. She explained that, “The states are starting to have legislation recognizing gold and silver bullion as legal currency. This is [also] a very strong signal the states are sending to the federal government, that the time to get serious about ending the corruption in the financial system is now here.”
When asked her thoughts on what this all means for the world monetary system, Karen said, “What’s going to happen, is we’re going to have all the countries of the world, sit down and figure out what’s going to be the best, most orderly transition from the current system that we have, [which has] profound imbalance and unsustainable deficits…[this change] is going to happen as each country makes its preference known, because the system we have now is not transparent, and the biggest change [in the new system], is that there’s going to be transparency.”
That transparency may be found through a gold-backed currency system, Karen noted, as, “All of the countries of the world are going to allow precious metals to serve as currency, and this will be an underpinning for paper currency, [as] we’ll have both systems at the same time. This is my guess, as I mentioned—I am an economist.”
As a final comment speaking towards her difficult journey as a World Bank whistle-blower, Karen said, “I’ve been struggling now for years, to tell the American public what’s [been] going on. I haven’t gotten through, because this [financial] group has bought up the press and has been spreading disinformation systematically. That undermines the whole point of a democracy. How can voters vote without an informed opinion, without the information that they’re entitled too? So this strangle-hold on information is going to end in very short order.”
——
This was a powerful interview conducted with a great American patriot and honorable world citizen. Karen is setting an example for the history books, and her interview is required listening for global thinkers and market students.
>> Interview with Karen Hudes ( MP3 ) <<
Prediksi Gold. 08.07.2013
GOLD PRO Weekly July 08-12, 2013
Sive Morten ( Special Consultant to the FPA )
Fundamentals
Although on passed week there are some significant data and events were happened, I do not see any changes in overall bearish sentiment, even more – it was nurtured by this data and events. Actually in all spheres that could impact on gold we see the same picture.
Speaking about US economy we can’t just ignore most recent NFP data that shows nice 195K of new jobs, exceeding expectations of 165K. This again has stirred up the rumors about faster than expected contraction of QE program. Concerns about when the U.S. central bank could begin paring its stimulus have triggered turbulence across major asset classes worldwide. That has prompted Fed officials to back-pedal on Chairman Ben Bernanke's recent suggestion that the retreat could occur between later this year and next. Gold posted its biggest quarterly loss on record, down 23 percent for April-June and hit a near 3-year low of $1,180.71 last week, on selling exacerbated by Bernanke' comments that the economy was recovering strongly enough for the Fed to begin tapering in the next few months.
Such a retreat would support a rise in interest rates, making gold less attractive as a buy-and-hold asset.
By Reuters news – Frank McGhee, head precious metals trader at Integrated Brokerage Services in Chicago, said: "The jobs numbers we got today simply reinforce the market's forward-looking position on where gold is likely to be down the road. The market is looking 6 to 8 months out, pricing gold in a rising interest rates environment."
Rapid outflows from gold exchange-traded products (ETPs) and softer-than-expected physical demand were other reasons for the weakness in gold. Gold ETPs holdings fell by $4.1 billion in June and $28.2 billion year-to-date, according to data from BlackRock. Indian consumption of gold has fallen since the country imposed new import restrictions. Chinese buyers are sidelined, waiting for prices to fall further, or at least stabilize.
From the other side, US dollar stands now at 3-year high. Gold has also come under pressure after the European Central Bank signalled in the previous session that it could cut interest rates further, a move that will push the dollar even higher and weigh on gold.
"The euro is likely to remain week, as the ECB will remain accommodative longer than the Fed... And when combined with relatively subdued inflation expectations on both sides of the Atlantic, this is gold bearish," VTB Capital said in a note. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to its highest level since August 2011 at 2.67 percent earlier. As gold pays no interest, the rise in returns from U.S. bonds and other markets is seen as negative for the metal.
Thus, we can see as in sphere of physical demand, as in economy data the concerns about faster than expected closing of QE program and falling of gold attractiveness just exacerbated. So, fundamentally there are no changes in previous bearish look on gold. But as we’ve said in previous research too radical bearishness is also dangerous.
Monthly
July candle is rather small and just inside one for June by far. Thus, our previous analysis is still the same. June candle leads us to further confirmation of Volatility Breakout pattern here by showing even lower close than in May and April. This pattern usually provides solid reliability, since it based not on some price averaging as other indicators but on statistical measure of standard deviation, i.e. on volatility. This is in fact the core of the market’s breath and if we can call it in this way – some statistical law that could lead to significant consequences.
Now we have VOB setup here. Market never was as oversold as it stands now. Take a look at DOSC indicator again – market now stands at all time extreme point that is lower than the previous extreme value in 2008. This gives us very significant conclusion that will be hard to overvalue. Usually when market forms VOB it leads to 2-leg downward move in some shape of AB-CD, but not necessary that AB should be equal to CD. The minimum target of VOB is 0.618 extension of AB-CD, where AB – initial swing down that has given VOB. Other words – now market is forming AB move. On previous week in fundamental part above we’ve discussed possibility of appearing of BC leg, since sentiment is extremely bearish. Then some retracement up should follow and then downward continuation, i.e. extension. And major question now – is current level suitable for starting of upward bounce? Technically it is worthy of our attention and not only because this is significant Fib level. Take a look – this is also target of double harmonic swing and target of rectangle breakout. Usually price tends to pass down the distance that equals the height of broken rectangle. And yes, monthly oversold is also here. It is not necessary that bounce will start tomorrow. It could happen even not in July and after some fluctuations around 1200, but we should be careful and keep an eye on possible reversal patterns on weekly chart.
So two significant conclusions could be made here: whatever bounce market will show here – this probably will be just retracement but not a reversal – the same thought we’ve made based on fundamental picture analysis. The fact that market has passed slightly below Fib support level doesn’t mean yet that this level is broken. This is monthly chart and really big picture. We need to see stable possession below 1200 to accept this idea.
Weekly
Weekly chart also does not care any surprises. Previous week was inside one as well and market only has tried to return back to previous lows. It means that we still didn’t get here any signs of sensible retracement up. Weekly and monthly charts are rather long a big picture, so to get here something valuable we need much more time.
Thus, on monthly chart we said, that “somewhere” around market could probably meet some support and turn to retracement. But where is this support precisely? Let’s see what facts do we have right now. Bullish signs include monthly Fib support, 1.618 target of initial AB=CD on weekly chart, weekly oversold and Butterfly “Buy”, although butterfly target was exceeded to the downside. But all these signs do not resolve major task – changing the tendency here. Precisely speaking, they could break the tendency, but it has not been done yet, since market just has reached this significant level. And we’re still just preparing to see whether major tendency will change or not and will these patterns become a trigger for upward significant bounce.
The major tendency itself could be easily seen here. Take a look that market forms lower highs and lower lows. Retracements very small and market has doubled it only once. Thus, we need to see higher high to start thinking about possible upward reversal. Now, we can say only that as market has hit solid support area – it could show a bounce and the nearest target is new July MPP at 1279.
Daily
Here guys you see the finish of our B&B “Sell” trade that we’ve made during previous week. On Friday we’ve said that as market has failed to continue move higher to 50% resistance and MPP and it has no more time, since there were 3 days above 3x3 by this time, we’ve said that probably B&B should start right now and that has happened. Market has hit our target at 1210-1215 area.
Actually right now only there are two possibilities exist – either AB=CD retracement up or downward continuation. Since here we’ve got bullish stop grabber pattern, although this one stands against major trend AB=CD upward retracement seems not as impossible as it could be without it. Currently is very tricky situation on gold market and personally I feel a bit uncomfortable to trade something longer than say B&B trade on daily. The point is that we at solid support, market look really heavy and oversold and all are extremely bearish. At the same time market stands at the eve on seasonal trend changing into bullish. In such circumstances it is difficult to sell, especially when you do not have any clear patterns to do it. From the other point of view we do not have any impressive buy setups. Yes, we have bullish stop grabber and possibility for AB=CD up, but it is not solid setup. So, if you still will decide to trade something here – be careful and ready that this will be risky.
Keep an eye on stop grabbers low. If market will take it out, then there probably will not be any AB=CD. Conversely, we could start think about short entry only if market will erase stop grabber pattern. So, let’s focus on it in the beginning of the week and later we will see, what will happen.
4-hour
Here in fact you see this potential upside scenario. Take a look, how market has hit B&B target – almost tick-to-tick. One of the reasons why this upward action is possible, beyond daily stop grabber pattern is untouched MPP. Market tends to touch it within the month. Also this possible AB=CD pattern creates an Agreement with 1301 Fib resistance level that stands inside of daily K-resistance area (1290-1308). Now price stands very close to daily stop grabber’s low, thus risk on this trade will be very small.
1-hour
So, if you still would like to take long position – here is how it could be done. We have very nice looking number of Fib levels, that includes K-support area. Gold market likes to show deep retracements and previous move down was significant. Thus, market probably will reach 1217 K-support area at minimum or even 1213 level. Invalidation point for this scenario is current low at 1208. That is about scalp traders. If you trade on daily then it will be better to wait when this retracement will finish and search possibility to enter short at Agreement for example. Depending on how market will behave round 1300 area we will prepare plan a bit later with more precision.
Conclusion:
Technically and fundamentally gold market stands in long-term bearish motion, but there are more and more factors start to appear that make downward action as not as cloudless as it was recently. Also we’ve got VOB pattern that gives us forecast for long-term price behavior and promise compounded downward move in shape of some AB-CD. Now major question in big picture – is when and how BC up leg will start.
We do not know just yet – is current move up is just a minor bounce or something bigger. Until we will not get more clarification on longer time frames, let’s treat it as retracement. By now it has a possible target around 1300 area if market will show enough power to pass through WPP and give us AB=CD retracement.
On Monday our attention will be stick with daily bullish stop grabber pattern and potential retracement back inside of its body that could give us opportunity to enter long.
Writed By Sive Morten ( Special Consultant to the FPA ).
Prediksi Gold. 05.07.2013
GOLD PRO Weekly July 01-05, 2013
On Friday we’ve traded gold market to upside due RRT pattern that has appeared right at daily 1.618 ultimate AB-CD target and extremely low price level that was not seen here for 3 years. But that was a technical issue. Fundamentally, since market is approaching to quarter end, we’ve seen the short covering and book-squaring. As a result gold has surged at 2 percents. Bullion's 2.3 percent rally was particularly impressive on a day that had little macroeconomic news and no dramatic movements in other commodities and financial markets. Silver jumped 6percent for its biggest one-day jump since January 2012. Still, by end of quarter market has shown 23% drop - its biggest decline since at least 1968, Reuters data shows. Some investors aggressively bought back their bearish bets on fears gold could rebound, while others squared their books on the last trading day of a dismal second quarter after Thursday's 2 percent drop as funds polished portfolios through the practice of window-dressing, as Reuters said.
Situation with physical demand stands poor as well. While there was significant demand after April’s drop on physical gold in Asia and India now situation is rather shy - U.S. Mint's American Eagle gold coins in June stand at only 47,000 ounces, a fifth of what was sold in all April, when sales hit a 3-1/2year high. Silver Eagles sales are down 20 percent.
Investors, not individuals, are likely to hold the key for prices in the second half. The world's eight largest gold ETFs lost 530 tonnes of gold in the first half of 2013, equivalent to about 10 percent of annual gold production.
So, when any market and especially gold enters at such mess, we should keep in mind two major moments. First is – drastical changes on the markets usually happen when everybody either bullish or bearish. Because in this time there are nobody on the other side, and market starts to reverse. When your grandma will ask you about selling of her old gold earrings since gold is dropping – the time of reversal is near. Second – gold is approaching to price level of 1000$ at which miner companies meet the breakeven point of gold production. As production of gold will be either contracted or even put on hold for sometime – price will go up, since supply will ease. Gold still has some room till that level, but keep in mind that gold will enter in seasonal bullish trend at the end of August. I see some non-occasional coincidence all of these multiple moments. And we should be extra careful now to any hints on reversal patterns and signs on gold market. "You've seen an over-run on the downside here. I am not positive that this is the low but we are very close to it," said John Hummel, AIS Group's chief investment officer, who manages $400 million in assets including a managed futures fund by Reuters report. And in general it is difficult to argue with this opinion. By our analysis gold probably will show two-leg move down in some kind of AB=CD, but BC upward retracement could start soon, may be even within nearest 2-3 months. Don’t forget either that gold now stands at all time 3/8 Fib support level at extreme oversold level. Despite huge moves that market shows now to the downside, it seems that some tiredness is starting to accumulate here. Now major event has happened – Fed has announced how it will deal with QE and what it will be watching for. Major reaction on gold market has followed, but now more and more investors sit on the hands and just wait first possible signs of inflation or other data that could be bullish for gold. When any of them will appear – that could be explosive move to the upside, since gold now is like wrapped spring and trigger that holds it – absence of bullish data. So, the bullish pressure is already here – market just needs the trigger to release it. I do not want to tell that gold is changing sentiment. I just want to tell that bearish activity peak of first downward move (first leg) fall behind. You may argue with this, since I can’t prove it right now, this is just how I sense it.
But currently is not the time of changes and CFTC data on current week again confirms the bearish sentiment as open interest has increased at price decreasing on passed week.
Monthly
June candle leads us to further confirmation of Volatility Breakout pattern here by showing even lower close than in May and April. This pattern usually provides solid reliability, since it based not on some price averaging as other indicators but on statistical measure of standard deviation, i.e. on volatility. This is in fact the core of the market’s breath and if we can call it in this way – some statistical law that could lead to significant consequences.
Now we have VOB setup here. Market never was as oversold as it stands now. Take a look at DOSC indicator again – market now stands at all time extreme point that is lower than the previous extreme value in 2008. This gives us very significant conclusion that will be hard to overvalue. Usually when market forms VOB it leads to 2-leg downward move in some shape of AB-CD, but not necessary that AB should be equal to CD. The minimum target of VOB is 0.618 extension of AB-CD, where AB – initial swing down that has given VOB. Other words – now market is forming AB move. In fundamental part above we’ve discussed possibility of appearing of BC leg. Then some retracement up should follow and then downward continuation, i.e. extension. And major question now – is current level suitable for starting of upward bounce? Technically it is worthy of our attention and not only because this is significant Fib level. Take a look – this is also target of double harmonic swing and target of rectangle breakout. Usually price tends to pass down the distance that equals the height of broken rectangle. And yes, monthly oversold is also here. It is not necessary that bounce will start tomorrow. It could happen even not in July and after some fluctuations around 1200, but we should be careful and keep an eye on possible reversal patterns on weekly chart.
So two significant conclusions could be made here: whatever bounce market will show here – this probably will be just retracement but not a reversal – the same thought we’ve made based on fundamental picture analysis. The fact that market has passed slightly below Fib support level doesn’t mean yet that this level is broken. This is monthly chart and really big picture. We need to see stable possession below 1200 to accept this idea.
Weekly
Thus, on monthly chart we said, that “somewhere” around market could probably meet some support and turn to retracement. But where is this support precisely? Let’s see what facts do we have right now. Bullish signs include monthly Fib support, 1.618 target of initial AB=CD on weekly chart, weekly oversold and Butterfly “Buy”, although butterfly target was exceeded to the downside. But all these signs do not resolve major task – changing the tendency here. Precisely speaking, they could break the tendency, but it has not been done yet, since market just has reached this significant level. And we’re still just preparing to see whether major tendency will change or not and will these patterns become a trigger for upward significant bounce.
The major tendency itself could be easily seen here. Take a look that market forms lower highs and lower lows. Retracements very small and market has doubled it only once. Thus, we need to see higher high to start thinking about possible upward reversal. Now, we can say only that as market has hit solid support area – it could show a bounce and the nearest target is new July MPP at 1279.
Daily
On Friday market has started the bounce by intraday RRT pattern. As a result we’ve got bullish engulfing pattern at significant support level. So, some at least short-term retracement is possible until lows of this pattern will hold. Here we will get great assistance, since market will open near WPP of 1238. If market will move higher than it will be first confirmation that should give us a confidence with possible deeper move. Potential target will be significant resistance area that includes WPR1, MPP, daily K-resistance 1290-1308 area and daily overbought. Currently is very difficult to make analysis on longer perspective, since we need to see how market will approach to this area first. If market will erase this engulfing pattern, then we should be ready for another leg down. Hence our task is to take position as closer to it’s lows as possible
1-hour
Here trend has turned bullish as well as on 4-hour chart. Market has achieved minimum target of RRT pattern – the length of the bars and re-test previous consolidation. Very probable that market will open slightly higher on Monday and reach 1.618 AB-CD target and WPP. If some retracement will follow – that will be the chance for long entry. I do not call you do it blindly – make reasonable decision about long entry. If market will start fall like a stone with long black candles – this is not the way how we would like to see it. I call you to monitor this possibility. Personally I like 1206-1212 area. This is 5/8 Fib support and previous swing high that will be natural support. Thus, this is first stage of our plan for Monday – wait reaching of 1238-1240 area and then retracement to 1210 area.
Conclusion:
Technically and fundamentally gold market stands in long-term bearish motion, but there are more and more factors start to appear that make downward action as not as cloudless as it was recently. Also we’ve got VOB pattern that gives us forecast for long-term price behavior and promise compounded downward move in shape of some AB-CD. Now major question in big picture – is when and how BC up leg will start.
We do not know just yet – is current move up is just a minor bounce or something bigger. Until we will not get more clarification on longer time frames, let’s treat it as retracement. By now it has a possible target around WPR1 1300 area if market will show enough power to pass through WPP.
On Monday our attention will be stick with daily bullish engulfing pattern and potential retracement back inside of its body that could give us opportunity to enter long.
OK.
Prediksi Gold. 04.07.2013
Pergerakan gold hari ini mungkin dengan range yang tidak begitu lebar. Faktor politik di Mesir menjadi support bagi Oil yg seharusnya juga mengangkat harga emas, tapi data dari US kemarin juga dirilis membaik juga bisa menjadi tekanan untuk emas. Hari ini saya menarik garis-garis horisontal di 1240, 1247, 1255 dan 1262. Saya memperkirakan hari ini Gold mungkin akan bergerak dalam range maksimum 1240 < > 1262. Dan range dalam di 1247 < > 1255. Saya memperkirakan gold hari ini mungkin turun ke 1244 / 1243 lalu naik ke 1262 / 1263. Sekian.
Energy and Precious Metals Technical Analysis
Jul 04, 2013.
BULLION
GOLD closed higher on Wednesday. The highrange close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20day moving average crossing are needed to confirm that a shortterm low has been posted. If it extends this year's decline, monthly support crossing is the next downside target.
SILVER closed higher on Wednesday. The highrange close set the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. If it renews this year's decline, monthly support crossing is the next downside target. Closes above the 20day moving average crossing are needed to confirm that a low has been posted.
U.S. STOCK MARKET INDICES
US30 Index CFD closed higher on Wednesday and the highrange close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signalling that sideways to lower prices are possible nearterm. If the Dow extends the decline off May's high, the 38% retracement level of the NovemberMay rally crossing is the next downside target. Multiple closes above the 20day moving average crossing are needed to confirm that a shortterm low has been posted.
ENERGY
US OIL closed higher on Wednesday and the midrange close sets the stage for a steady opening when Thursday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signlaling that sideways to higher prices are possible nearterm. If it extends this week's rally, January's high crossing is the next upside target. Closes below the 20day moving average crossing would confirm that a shortterm top has been posted.
NATURAL GAS closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday and the highrange close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signalling that sideways to lower prices are possible nearterm. If it extends the decline off May's high, the 87% retracement level of this year's rally crossing is the next downside target. Closes above the 20day moving average crossing would confirm that a shortterm low has been posted.
COFFEE
US Coffee CFD closed lower on Wednesday. The lowrange close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signalling that sideways to lower prices are possible nearterm. If it extends the decline off May's high, weekly support crossing is the next downside target. Closes above the 20day moving average crossing are needed to confirm that a shortterm low has been posted.
Prediksi Gold. 03.07.2013
Saya memperkirakan bahwa gold mungkin bergerak naik ke 1255 - 1260, lalu turun ke 1238 dan maks di 1232. Dan jika area ini menjadi support, maka mungkin gold akan naik lagi ke 1260. Dan jika bisa melewati 1267, mungkin bisa berlanjut ke 1278. Sekian
Fed Dudley: Higher Bond Buys For Longer If Outlook Worsens
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| William C. Dudley, president of Federal Reserve Bank of New York. (Photo credit: Wikipedia) |
"The Fed has said we could raise or lower the pace of asset purchases," William Dudley, New York Federal Reserve Bank president and a close ally of Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, said in response to questions following a luncheon speech.
He reiterated that, if the economic outlook "surprised to the downside, if things were really, really weak," then "I would expect the rate of asset purchases would be higher for longer."
Asked about his mention in his prepared remarks that "asset purchases would continue at a higher pace for longer" should "economic circumstances diverge significantly from the FOMC's expectations," Dudley said he was being "deliberately ambiguous." The phrase can be interpreted as referring to the current "higher" rate of $85 million in monthly bond buying or an even faster pace.
His speech again described in detail how the Fed is keeping its options open on its eventual "tapering" of bond purchases and slimming of its bloated balance sheet.
The New York Fed chief said the Fed's rate of bond buying "depends on the outlook rather than the calendar."
Financial markets have shuddered in the days following the Fed's June 18-19 policy meeting, when Bernanke said that if the economic data ahead comports with the Fed's current outlook, the Federal Open Market Committee could begin the process of scaling back its asset purchases later this year.
Dudley repeated that "a strong majority of FOMC participants no longer favor selling agency MBS securities during the monetary policy normalization process.
"This implies a bigger balance sheet for longer ... and continuing support for mortgage markets going forward."
Most of his colleagues "currently do not expect short-term rates to begin to rise until 2015," he added.
Dudley told his audience that the Fed's "aggressive" policy action is supporting the broader economy's recovery by juicing credit markets.
But he acknowledged that, during the downturn, "we were at times too optimistic about the economic outlook."
He went on to muse that, "[w]ith the benefit of hindsight, should policy have been even more accommodative, even sooner than it was? Yeah, I think that would be fair."
Dudley also said that, despite total inflation falling short of the Fed's 2% goal, "inflation expectations are still pretty firmly anchored.
U.S. Should Show Some Ambition on Bank Leverage
U.S. Should Show Some Ambition on Bank Leverage
Prediksi Gold. 02.07.2013
Pergerakan Gold hari ini mungkin akan ke 1267 - 1269, lalu setelah diarea ini gold akan turun ke area 1258 - 1255 dan akan mencoba untuk test kembali area 1267 dan jika bisa melewati 1269, maka mungkin berlanjut ke 1288 - 1290. Saya memperkirakan dalam 2 atau 3 hari kedepan mungkin gold perlu untuk mencoba menyentuh 1300 - 1305 lalu turun. Jangan lupa setiap posisi Buy harus dipasang TP dan SL, mengingat trend masih Bearish. Sekian.
Gold Weekly Technical Outlook
Gold Weekly Technical Outlook.
Comex Gold (GC).
Gold's down trend continued last week and dropped to as low as 1179.4 before covering mildly. From near term point of view, outlook stays bearish as long as 1268.7 resistance holds. However, we'd point out that gold is now in an important support zone of 1155.7 and 1200. A break above 1268.7 will indicate bottoming and would turn outlook cautiously bullish for rebound back to 55 days EMA (now at 1391.2).In the bigger picture, while long term down trend from from 1923.7 is still in progress, we'd be cautious on strong support from 61.8% retracement of 681. to 1923.7 at 1155.7 to bring rebound. Though, even in that case, break of 1526.7 resistance is needed to signal reversal. Or, outlook will stay bearish for deeper decline ahead.
In the long term picture, the long term up trend in gold has likely reversed and this is affirmed by the strong break of 55 months EMA (now at 1378.5). Gold is possibly now in a long term correction pattern that would drag in back to 681/1033.9 support zone, with 61.8% retracement of 253.2 to 1923.7 at 891.3 inside.
Comex Gold Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.
Comex Gold Continuous Contract Daily Chart.
Comex Gold Continuous Contract Weekly Chart.
Comex Gold Continuous Contract Monthly Chart.
Prediksi Gold. 01.07.2013
Daily chart hari kamis dan jum'at membentuk pola Bullish Engulfing Pattern yang mengindikasikan pola pembalikan arah. Tapi rasanya terlalu dini untuk mengatakan bahwa harga sudah berbalik arah, didalam tekanan bearish yang masih kuat secara fundamental. Atau lebih tepatnya jika kita mengatakan mungkin harga gold akan mengalami rebound atau bisa juga konsolidasi. Hari ini ketika saya posting prediksi ini, harga gold sudah terbentuk Low Price di 1224 dan High Price di 1244. Saya memperkirakan harga gold akan ke 1230 - 1226 lalu naik ke 1251 - 1255 dan jika mampu melewati area ini mungkin bisa ke 1269. Tapi karena masih dalam tekanan bearish, maka harus diwaspadai jika gold turun dan mampu melewati 1224, maka rebound yang saya sebutkan diatas bisa gagal. OK. Sekian.
