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More Downside Pressure For Gold, Substantial Rally Nearby: Gary Wagner | Kitco News
Transcript :
0:02
do
0:05
and
0:08
and let up to an additional charge
0:09
this with me now is Gary Wagner gary
thank you for joining me today
0:13
my pleasure my pleasure as always hi
Gerry so last week we saw a pretty solid
0:17
week in terms ago prices this week a
little bit more volatile with positive
0:21
economic news coming out
0:22
now I do you see goal setting up we come
back from a long weekend
0:25
let you know we we had an interesting
scenario
0:30
in debt I was looking for the market to
run roughly to 1333
0:35
Chu 1363 on the high side
0:38
we saw a murky actual an intraday basis
this week
0:42
run to 1332 50 searches shy of our
0:46
initial target and then of course we had
a tremendous pressure
0:50
a couple of days because mark came down
yesterday was flat and
0:54
I would expect a little bit more
downside pressure next week
1:00
I could see it going as low as 1262 is
my number
1:05
I it might not get there but we could
see a little bit
1:09
additional pressure now last time you
run with Danielle you mention that
1:12
you're expecting a corrective wave
followed by a substantial rally in gold
1:15
prices
1:16
now are we still not corrective wave
right now if so I'll
1:19
how much more pressure do we see on gold
prices exactly
1:24
up the the pressure that we saw this
week towards the end of the week
1:28
I believe was the beginning of that
final
1:32
down way and the way that I have chilled
the lady is
1:36
the unusual run from 1181
1:39
to our to the first target their was
1:42
a wave where now in our final what's
called the Seaway
1:47
watched conclude style wish we could
have
1:51
a fairly substantial rally now switch
over the Fed there's beige book
1:55
yesterday at Janet
1:57
yellin' spoke yesterday now what do you
make of the Fed's message
2:00
and is going to create more headwinds
for gold but you know they're they're
2:04
announcements are always going to move
markets and that's why they're so
2:07
all wearing kissinger what they say and
how they share I was very very impressed
2:12
though
2:12
with yellin' I'll attempt to
2:15
really have a formal sense of
transparency in the market
2:19
she speaks in very very clear words
2:23
she does it tend to have words that have
double meanings
2:27
and I believe that she is first and
foremost
2:31
looking to shed atone of transparency
2:35
in terms of fed comments it come out
excellent gary let's see what you
2:39
brought French artist viewers over this
long weekend
2:41
yeah today's insure obviously going to
carry out from
2:45
from last week we've been talking about
various pivot points
2:49
and ways to predict tops and bottoms in
the market is
2:54
runs through pockets BC got cycle or
natural pattern that runs true
2:59
and show we're going to you look at how
we calculated of course this last time
3:05
that we saw and most importantly
3:08
how we're chill kill aiding and
forecasting where the market should
3:12
bottom in wurtzite
3:13
I'd have to enter the water again hey
let's take a look at these answers
3:17
and today's insert I wanna pick up where
we left off
3:21
talking about pivot points key reversals
3:24
and techniques that can be used to
attempt to identify them
3:30
of course from our last show we talked
about the fact we were
3:33
pretty much me deep in a rally at this
point in last week's show came out as we
3:39
saw this market moving up
3:40
we are looking at a three hundred and
twenty minute chart
3:44
it is in standard candlestick format let
me shrink the candles downsize why she's
3:50
a little bit so they are
3:51
don't overlap as much we talked about
the fact that
3:55
as this market wet are are current model
that we were using which is basically an
4:00
Elliott Wave have been that you base
model
4:02
talked about the fact that if we
identified this is our
4:05
a wave right here and that would be of
course a
4:08
a wave oven a ABI and AC
4:12
progression we talked about the fact
that in
4:15
are model that we look at which is just
basic
4:18
Elliott Wave they talk about the fact
that your
4:22
typical chip a call be waived is going
to rule and somewhere within the range
4:28
of fifty percent to 75 percent
4:31
in terms of an Elliott Wave retracement
and that is an Elliott Wave retracement
4:35
of the entire corrective period in other
words a move from 1392
4:40
down to $12.75 well since that show we
have seen the market
4:45
continue to trade higher and in fact it
did trade
4:49
as high as the fifty percent
4:52
line you can see right here we were
looking for 1333 it's based on this
4:57
number and you can look at last week's
5:00
in certain you'll see that that's where
we drew it from but what we were saying
5:04
is that anywhere between
5:06
1333 and as high as 1364
5:10
week in it we can see that current rally
begin to stall
5:13
and then are model was looking for
5:17
a corrective wave that final wave that
we call our seaway will talk about where
5:21
we think to see where it goes in the
second now
5:24
when you look at where the high was on
5:27
this particular set of highs
5:33
what you'll notice is I believe it was
13
5:36
3250 so just about
5:39
the brass ring just about a home run but
right
5:43
they're absolutely the market came to 50
percent and then we saw this dramatic
5:47
sell-off
5:48
show using up Elliott Wave
5:52
but more importantly a fib unnaturally
based model
5:55
Atkin lend some fury very good
5:59
insight in terms of places to look for
certain activity
6:04
found within the market now
6:07
one of the other things we talked about
in terms of identification of key pivot
6:11
points is
6:12
what we do and what we recommend in
terms of a good strategy
6:18
even if you combined different technical
indicators that we use
6:21
and that strategy would be if you're
looking for market to run
6:25
to move to a certain range say 30 32 64
6:29
now we want to identify
6:33
a candlestick pattern some kind of
patterns that will show us that there's
6:36
a potential reversal at that point
6:39
and who I was looking at this two-week
chart of course on the stew which are
6:43
we're really looking at what it was
called her Elliott Wave
6:46
primary or major moves but if you take a
look
6:50
at the top but this market this most
recent
6:53
high that we got if you tuned in late
last week
6:58
and went to the bonus content I
presented or disclose
7:02
the repair in group I believe to be
7:05
up incredible insight in the market in
terms of indicating a potential reversal
7:11
and the fact that they are present in
7:14
the majority of the stops and bottoms
7:18
and can be easily identified they're not
very very large patterns are two and
7:22
three day patterns
7:23
but I draw your attention to the three
were ever even group that we talked
7:27
about
7:27
and basically what we look for is a
defined uptrend
7:32
we got that a long green candle which
means that it closed higher than it
7:36
opened
7:37
you get a shorter almost are like candle
7:41
followed by a shooting star and the
shooting stars really wanna what I wanna
7:45
play now it's a fairly
7:47
rare occurrence but we you have one
right here
7:50
but when you get them in conjunction
with other factors
7:54
it really point something out now this
was the atop over at doubt $13.95
8:00
and then that was followed by another
shower and then the red can love course
8:03
what we're looking at here
8:05
is this current weeks activity and we're
getting another pivotal candle that
8:09
dodgy candle
8:10
but candlesticks can provide a
8:13
incredible set of parameters in terms of
patterns in because
8:18
we had such a overwhelming response
8:21
last week to the pattern group on are
bonus
8:25
content this week and at the end to the
Charlotte you know how to get to open
8:29
and the bonus content this week
8:30
I have 3 more pattern group that
8:34
I recommend learning along with the
first set that we have more have a link
8:38
available for that also see you can view
all these parent group
8:42
if you haven't seen them and I really
believe that it will
8:46
allow you to be a more insightful trader
8:49
show what is our current forecast from
where do we think the market
8:55
I is going to go too well as you heard
on the interview
8:58
really what I'm looking for is so murky
to move down to a possibility about
9:03
up 1262 and in other words I'm looking
for a total ABC progression
9:08
that would go something like this: we
had our
9:12
long wave one here that was composer
1,2,3,4,5
9:15
then we had a1 org Hu's me
9:19
are be met the criteria went to fifty
percent
9:22
and I believe our she will take us to
the sixty-one percent
9:25
level and that is 12 sixty
9:28
to for those who have you who would like
a more information on this topic and
9:33
look at the
9:33
next three pattern group so we're going
to disclose
9:37
simply go to our website called forecast
acecomm you'll see this link click here
9:41
to join EP haven't joined from there
you'll see create free account
9:45
what she have the coat you'll have a new
set of options and one of the options
9:49
will be after the show
9:50
along with recent videos if you go to
after the show
9:54
it will typically show you all of the
different after the shows in you'll see
9:58
listed candle patterns
10:00
that is the first three patterns from
last week
10:03
again using candle patterns
10:06
Elliott Wave Fibonacci retracement to
10:10
forecasting create price models to
affectively trade
10:14
the gold market great gary thanks for
joining me enjoy the long weekend
10:18
my pleasure I want to wish all our
churches viewers a very very
10:21
happier holiday and most importantly a
great three day weekend
10:26
great training next week we'll talk to
real soon by
10:29
and thank you for watching this edition
%uh chart this is any comments or
10:33
questions please don't hesitate to sign
up for news be back at CITCO dot com
10:37
enjoy the long weekend folks the
One More Correction For Gold Before 'Substantial Rally' -- Chart This!
Transcription.
0:00
Gary Wagner brings us to a close this
week chart this is up next
0:07
do
0:09
the gary thanks so much for joining us
this Friday
0:14
my pleasure my pleasure as always Gary
last time we spoke gold had hit a
0:19
six-week low now on Thursday
0:21
it has hit a two-week high so quite a
turn of events here
0:24
what do you make up the recent movements
we've seen in gold yes last time we
0:28
talked we were looking at the fact that
gold had hit
0:32
a six-month low but we also put it into
perspective
0:36
and the perspective was that we had just
0:40
really Comm Ave 208 dour
0:43
rally to the upside and
0:47
their upside have to have some sort of a
correction
0:51
we shot just that in fact we saw correct
a little bit over 50 percent now
0:55
play 61 percent and then begin to move
back all
1:00
in fact on the last insert that we did
1:03
we talked about specific pivot points in
specific things to look at
1:08
to determine when in fact a market
1:11
might turnaround now the fact that we're
seeing gold hitting a
1:15
two-week high is also noteworthy but
should be expected
1:20
we're looking at the market right now in
terms of are
1:23
current forecast to run anywhere between
1:26
call at 13:42 and 1362 on the high side
1:31
my belief is following that we will see
one more corrective wave
1:36
before we go into a fairly substantial
rally
1:39
in about 2 to three months gary let's
look forward not to next week where it
1:44
will be a heavy died a week with US
retail sales
1:47
consumer price index the Philly Fed
survey and the Fed
1:51
Beige Book all coming out out we also
have the markets close next Friday am
1:56
servants have good Friday do you think
you'll be in and pack for Wii for the
1:59
gold market Gary
2:00
next week we do have a lot of economic
data coming out
2:03
and that data will absolutely influence
the market
2:06
but what I think we really want to be
cognisant of
2:10
is how the Fed reactions to the economic
data coming out
2:15
because if you recall we have the
release of the Fed
2:18
minutes this week and it seemed
2:22
through those minutes that the members
were
2:25
very very concerned with the affect
2:28
jet they're cheaper in was having on the
overall economy
2:32
and talking about specifically the
pressure that we have seen recently in
2:36
the equities markets
2:37
so I think that they're walking and not
so much eggshells
2:40
but they're walking very very carefully
and they watch you
2:44
be very certain impeachment they hatch
and the economic data of course is what
2:49
will determine
2:50
their next move so last year on Gary you
helped our viewers find key pivot points
2:55
in the gold market what have you brought
us today
2:57
yes last time are insure really focused
upon
3:01
pivot point sure how we determine as a
market comes down
3:04
that is probably his his support we see
a key reversal in it
3:08
is probably headed back up and today's
insert
3:12
I wanna talk about techniques and models
we use
3:15
to forecast where they are upside rally
might go to you
3:18
in terms of actual numbers and give you
an idea of how we came up with the
3:23
numbers
3:23
13 40 to 1360
3:27
as our current expectations up this next
rally
3:31
irate carry on that note lets get your
analysis today and
3:35
today's insert I want to
3:38
pick up where we left off on our last
3:41
show talking about keep it points key
reversals
3:45
and most importantly the process %uh
3:48
identification as you know
3:51
for those who have been watching the
chart this series it's not 8
3:55
single technique rather my belief
3:58
is that it is a combination of
techniques
4:02
that tends to give you the best results
4:06
for those that have been following the
show over the last
4:10
six months to even a year know that one
of the techniques that we have been
4:14
incorporating
4:16
is simply called in Andrews pitchfork
4:19
and we haven't interesting interesting
scenario
4:22
right now with the enriched pitchforks I
thought we might
4:25
star with this particular chart if you
recall from about
4:31
all a month a month and a half ago
4:34
I brought this chart out they talked
about the fact that
4:38
genuinely this marketplace has stayed
within
4:41
this cascading channel line since we
have been in this to find a correction
4:47
and we've seen the market go from one
about 1800
4:50
all the way down to you 1181 here on the
low side
4:54
but the interesting thing about using
cascading channel lines
4:59
is that they will move overtime
5:03
and so what's your tend to see is that
5:07
it's quite obvious we have real
resistance at the top of this
5:11
channel line or what we call the the
zero mark
5:15
and as this market soul of you can see
that absolutely
5:19
when it found support it found support
down
5:23
at the one hundred percent mark now
realize that
5:26
this pitchfork was created from three
data points
5:31
and these three data points in terms of
a time line
5:34
occurred in October 2012
5:38
and 2012 these cascading channel lines
were already present
5:42
so the fact that we would see the market
rate to the lowest
5:46
and then again to the highest is really
a strong indication of how powerful this
5:52
technique can be
5:54
now we pointed out that for the first
time we saw
5:58
the marketplace actually going to exceed
that channel line into me
6:03
that was a major major statement because
it gave us the possibility
6:07
over real breakout and the last piece of
technical information that I'm really
6:12
looking for
6:13
so that we can confirm that we're not
simply in a culture trend
6:17
mean this bullish action that we've
witness lately is a counter trend will
6:21
move back
6:22
to the bear market we've been in but
rather it's a key reversal
6:26
from a bear market to a bull market
6:29
the workup love techniques we use the
first technique of course
6:33
was simply using a basic
6:36
resistance line created from the Zeiss
your
6:40
drawing them across in other words we
fix these guys here
6:45
here here and so this breakout total
loss
6:49
that we were truly witnessing something
different no rely sets linear
6:54
when it came to the top of this channel
so to speak
6:58
my sense was that if it broke through
here that would be the final piece have
7:02
technical evidence it said we are in a
bear
7:05
a bull market however that wasn't to be
the case
7:08
and the market absolutely corrected from
that point but what i want. up
7:12
point out to our churches viewers today
is if you look it
7:16
how it came to rest in found supported
the bottom
7:20
or just 23 percent retracement and now
appears to be moving back
7:24
all to the 0 prong
7:27
its really showing us the strength of
this particular study
7:33
now as I said we have to salute Lee use
the studies
7:37
in conjunction with other technical
indicators so
7:42
the average pitchfork by itself is
compelling but it doesn't give us
7:46
all the information that we need another
technique that I found to be extremely
7:50
useful
7:52
in finding and identifying key reverses
or pivot point
7:58
is a chart simply called the Japanese
ever chart NAT is one that we have used
8:02
on many occasions now the trick to using
8:06
the Japanese average charge is realizing
that their
8:09
averages so they lag when we're using
weeklies like this
8:12
were really lagging behind any kind of a
trigger that we might get
8:18
two three four five days prior to its
getting triggers
8:22
but the techniques that we use whether
this is a weekly and daily a monthly
8:27
char are the same with the japanese
average we've talked about it
8:30
but I really think that it really really
8:33
is a very powerful tool that's worth
going over again
8:38
in essence what a Japanese average chart
does that's different than a standard
8:42
candlestick chart
8:44
is an on-campus astaire candlestick
chart you getting true
8:47
opens and closes and the top with the
wickets to hide the bottom is the low
8:52
anti-japanese average chart this body is
not drawn from
8:56
open to close but rather it competes
scandal compares itself
9:00
to the mid point to the prior candle a
green candle simply means
9:05
that he'd opened and closed above the
midpoint in the prior candle
9:09
the absence love these lower wicks and
the way up
9:13
says that at no time during the trading
activity of this candle or this weekend
9:17
a weekly chart
9:18
did the price go into or below
9:22
the midpoint of the prior candle red is
exactly the opposite in other words with
9:27
that saying it is opened and closed
below
9:29
the midpoint in the prior candle now
what you can see is
9:34
obviously color coding very easy to read
9:37
long as you've got green candles
year-long long as you have red candles
9:41
you short
9:41
however it gets a little bit more
complex in that and there's more
9:45
information available because the beauty
9:48
%uh this type of chart is it can give
you a
9:52
indication of the strength of a trend
whether that trend is waning
9:56
or strengthening how robust Disney do
that simply by body size
10:01
and then lastly its
10:04
an amazing amazing vehicle to look at
pivot points
10:08
and what we do when we look for pivot
points within a Japanese average chart
10:13
is as the market goes down you'll notice
that is
10:16
as it's in a full-blown downtrend you
have an absence of these
10:20
upper wicks as soon as you she your
first we come in that gives you an
10:23
indication
10:24
that the trend is beginning to weaken
look at how the body size compared to
10:29
these bodies get smaller
10:31
on the next candle it's a larger our
body
10:35
candle however you've got now tells on
both sides
10:39
this last candle is not really giving
you that much information because again
10:43
you have lost this lower wick
10:45
but are pivotal candle what we call our
does she does she is where the open and
10:49
close are pretty much the same
10:51
this pivotal campbell is what we look
for because typically and a top or a
10:56
bottom
10:56
you will get a very very small by the
DSi scandal
11:00
that indicates it you've actually got
that the or
11:03
what when I like to charm the the key
reversal
11:07
in that
11:10
you hit your bottom and then you begin
to trend higher now
11:14
if you look at this last trend up it's
not as clear on the top you do have a
11:19
smaller by the candle but we're not
getting really that pivotal does you
11:22
don't really get it here
11:23
what you do get is a change in color
show
11:26
using a Japanese every church again by
itself is not enough to give you the
11:31
information
11:32
that I believe is necessary to be able
to pinpoint
11:36
these particular pivot points so the
next thing that we combine is
11:41
actual candlesticks themselves that's
what we're looking at now I just
11:45
converted the chart we've been looking
at
11:46
to a standard candlestick chart on the
standard candlestick chart
11:50
green camera mounted opens and closes
higher this body represents the range
11:54
between the open/close
11:56
these up for weeks represent the range
on a green candle between the clothes in
12:00
the height
12:01
and the open in the low the reverse is
true and the red candles
12:05
the beautiful thing about candlesticks
is there are patterns
12:09
that we look for in the market for
example there's
12:12
some very very strong information that
we getting these three weeks in the sri
12:16
candles
12:17
first and foremost this particular
Campbell type is called a hammer
12:21
and a hammer is a very very interesting
campbell is found at the bottom of the
12:26
market
12:26
and what is interesting about it is the
fact that
12:30
the bears are absolutely in control
during this week
12:34
lower close right cattle absolutely in
control the following week
12:38
now during this week as the market was
trading down in this year you had a red
12:42
candle realize that that changed as a
candle was developing
12:46
but when you look at where the low is
compared to where the body is and that's
12:50
the key
12:51
in other words if the tail is a minimum
of two to three times the length of the
12:55
body
12:56
that's what's giving you the at that
hammer
12:59
a characteristic that of course you get
the confirming candle which is
13:04
a green candle higher higher higher low
but there's another
13:08
candlestick pattern that is available
right here and that he is dat
13:12
3 River Morningstar variation thereof
talked about you can see their variation
13:17
right here
13:18
which is simply the market going down
red star
13:21
green now because I've time permitting
13:25
I want you to get all the information I
can give you in terms of
13:31
what systems we use to actually
13:34
critique the market and then lastly
13:37
we use a combination of Elliott Wave
13:40
as well as to be naturally treshman so
we're putting candlesticks
13:44
Anders pitchfork Fibonacci retracement
13:47
Elliott Wave altogether to give us those
13:50
roadmaps that we find so useful in the
marketplace
13:55
now I am really really excited about
13:58
today's after it the show because what
we're going to do after the show this
14:03
week is I'm going to disclose
14:06
three particular patterns that have been
14:09
really really revealing and very very
accurate
14:13
in able to call pivot points the market
and that's what you'll be able to view
14:19
as a member of the after the show now
14:22
membership is absolutely free and to
view
14:26
this week's bonus content simply go to
our website called forecast acecomm
14:30
you see chart this after the show if
you're not a member go ahead and click
14:34
this link to join you see it says
creature freak out
14:37
once you create your free account you
will see a series of new menu options
14:43
that will allow you to view after the
show and take it to
14:47
the various episodes that we've had of
course you will be a new episode up here
14:51
tomorrow
14:52
that will allow you to really see
14:56
the three patterns that I am talking
about
15:00
again using a combination
15:03
of different technical indicators to
pinpoint
15:07
various pivot point and key reversal
areas
15:10
in the gold market Gary as always thank
you so much
15:13
it's always my pleasure to be here I
wanna wish all over chart this yours
15:17
a great weekend and great trading next
week
15:21
she rosso by same to you gerry and thank
you for watching this edition of chart
15:25
this is Gary Wagner email us
15:27
a news feed back kick a dot com or you
can follow us on Twitter
15:31
I think our combining happy weekend and
thanks for watching
15:34
the
