Prediksi Gold. 25.04.2016
Prediksi Gold. 25 April 2016.
SELL ==========>> $ 1236.00
STOP LOSS =====>> $ 1250.00
TAKE PROFIT ===>> $ 1180.00
SELL ==========>> $ 1236.00
STOP LOSS =====>> $ 1250.00
TAKE PROFIT ===>> $ 1180.00
COT Gold, Silver and US Dollar Index Report - April 22, 2016
COT Gold,
Silver and US Dollar Index Report - April 22, 2016
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Published: Saturday, 23 April 2016.
The COT reports which we look at each
week provide a breakdown of each Tuesday's open interest for markets in which
20 or more traders hold positions equal to or above the reporting levels
established by the CFTC. The weekly reports for
Futures-and-Options-Combined Commitments of Traders are released every Friday
at 3:30 p.m. Eastern time. The short report shows open interest separately
by reportable and Non-reportable positions. For reportable
positions, additional data is provided for commercial and non-commercial
holdings, spreading, changes from the previous report.
Futures and Options Combined
What does this title mean? A
future is a standardized contract traded through regulated exchanges where an
investor buys or sells a contract at a specified price for a specific date in
the future. The price includes the interest charge due to
the seller by the buyer from the date of the contract to the due
date. An option is the ‘right to buy or sell’ a contract at
a fixed date in the future at a specific [strike] price. The
difference is that a futures contract is an agreement to buy or sell, whereas
an option gives the holder the right to buy or
sell. An option holder can decide not to take up that right and
will only lose the cost of buying the option. His loss is
therefore definable at the start of his investment, while the potential
profit has not limit to it. A futures contract is usually
leveraged [a loan provided] up to 90% of the
contract. However, with the owner liable to top up his
‘margin’ to maintain this 10% his potential losses can rise far higher than
his investment. A ‘long’ [buying] contract limits its loss to the
full price of the item, whereas the ‘short’ [selling] contract has no limit
except the height that the price of the item can rise to.
The Commitment of Traders report [COT]
is therefore a report on the overall position of the Commodity Exchange
[COMEX or NYMEX].
Large & Small Speculators
The word “speculator” implies that the person is
simply making a bet on the way he thinks the price of the item is going to
move. In essence, he is a gambler. A trader
might be this, but then again he might be an Arbitrageur, buying in one
market and selling in another to capture the price difference between the
two. He wants to deal as fast as possible so as to minimize
his risk of a price movement while he is exposed. We would
not put him in the same category as a speculator.
Contract
One contract is 100 ounces of the commodity [gold or
silver in this case]. The numbers referred to above are
therefore the number of 100-ounce contracts in that
position. The net long speculative position is found by
adding the large and small speculators bought contracts and deducting the
large and small speculators sold contracts. We work on there
being 32,150 ounces in a tonne.
Buy [Long]
A long position is where an investor, trader,
speculator buys 100 ounces x the number of
contracts.
Sell [Short]
A short position is where an investor, trader,
speculator sells 100 ounces x the number contracts.
Spreading
For the options-and-futures-combined report,
spreading measures the extent to which each non-commercial trader holds equal
combined-long and combined-short positions. For example, if a non-commercial
trader in Gold futures holds 2,000 long contracts and 1,500 short contracts,
500 contracts will appear in the "Long" category and 1,500
contracts will appear in the "Spreading" category.
Open Interest
Open interest is the total of all futures and/or
option contracts entered into and not yet offset by a transaction, by
delivery, by exercise, etc. The aggregate of all long open
interest is equal to the aggregate of all short open interest.
Reportable Positions
Clearing members, futures commission merchants, and
foreign brokers (collectively called "reporting firms") file daily
reports with the Commission. Those reports show the futures and option positions
of traders that hold positions above specific reporting levels set by CFTC
regulations.
Commercial and Non-commercial Traders
When an individual reportable trader is identified
to the Commodities Futures Trading Commission, the trader is classified
either as "commercial" or "non-commercial." All of a
trader's reported futures positions in a commodity are classified as
commercial if the trader uses futures contracts in that particular commodity
for hedging as defined in the Commission's regulations (1.3(z)).
Non-reportable Positions
The long and short open interest shown
as "Non-reportable Positions" are derived by subtracting total long
and short "Reportable Positions" from the total open interest.
Accordingly, for "Non-reportable Positions," the number of traders
involved and the commercial/non-commercial classification of each trader are
unknown.
Changes in Commitments from Previous
Reports
Changes represent the differences
between the data for the current report date and the data published in the
previous report.
Number of Traders
To determine the total number of
reportable traders in a market, a trader is counted only once regardless
whether the trader appears in more than one category (non-commercial traders
may be long or short only and may be spreading; commercial traders may be
long and short). To determine the number of traders in each category,
however, a trader is counted in each category in which the trader holds a
position. Therefore, the sum of the numbers of traders in each category will
often exceed the "Total" number of traders in that market.
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